This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors It really had good numbers on the computer. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. by Retrosheet. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. Age is the decisive factor here. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR . With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012: ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. All he needs to do is stay healthy. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. The shift movement had already produced some . For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Thats just how it goes. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The team is confident in . Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Players are always free to change their minds about anything. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. Higgins over one inning. Massive crying face emoji. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted UZRs range component agrees. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Dont look at me. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. We're asking for your help to make it. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Donate to FanGraphs. Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Gift a Membership. Chicago Cubs. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. He clearly can the man stands 65. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Bill James Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. It happens. Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR . The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. by Retrosheet. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. by Retrosheet. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. $8? Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. . Hes still really young As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. by Retrosheet. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. Signup . Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Hows it going to go? Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. The grounders are just about all pulled. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. by Retrosheet. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Heres a powerful triple to center. He went second to home on a single. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. Im a little stubborn in that way. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. . Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. His 2012 projections are strong Their average WAR is below. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. For a big man, he can run a little by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. But the power was largely absent. Heyward Still Part of Chicago, Senga's Physical, Steele's Approach, Farm System, and Other Cubs Bullets from . The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Currently, Yahoo! Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. "I've talked . Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Heres a bomb to right. That was awesome, Kapler said. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. This group also aged incredibly well. But as far as I believe, batted-ball distributions arent as noisy as, say, BABIP. by Handedness. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin.